physics.ao-ph · 2026-09-01 · No. 102

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2026-09-01.

1 new papers in physics.ao-ph. Titles, authors, abstracts. Links to arXiv. Want this in your inbox every morning? Subscribe →

01 — The papers

1 entries
  1. 01

    Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

    Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt, Simon Baur, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma

    physics.ao-ph · cs.LG

    End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at...

    arxiv.org/abs/2608.30795 · PDF

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