q-fin.ST · 2026-07-15 · No. 54

Statistical Finance, 2026-07-15.

1 new papers in q-fin.ST. Titles, authors, abstracts. Links to arXiv. Want this in your inbox every morning? Subscribe →

01 — The papers

1 entries
  1. 01

    When Directional Accuracy Lies: A Base-Rate-Honest Benchmark for LoRA-Adapted TimesFM on Equity Forecasting

    Taizhen Cheung, SA Kwon

    q-fin.ST · cs.LG

    Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets. An early LoRA adapter in this project appeared to reach roughly 80% directional accuracy; we show this is not evidence of skill. Over a long horizon in a rising market, a trivial "always-up" rule attains comparably high accuracy without using the input at all. To separate...

    arxiv.org/abs/2607.12248 · PDF

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